40% of all shareholder returns have come from 1% of all companies. Identifying these companies is oftentimes a function of finding the themes in equities which are large enough to affect not just individual companies or sectors but the entire economy.
Here’s what you can expect as a subscriber to Citrini Research:
As a free tier subscriber, you’ll get access to my articles focusing on financial history (and parallels to current markets). They’re less focused on actionable insights but, hopefully, fun to read and thought provoking. As well as occasional Market Overview posts (sans positioning updates).
The real value is in our paid subscriptions.
As a paid subscriber, you’ll receive two to three in-depth thematic primers per year - covering what I believe are “mega-trends” in markets. These are themes that have wide-reaching implications across industries and asset classes and utilize carefully constructed long/short equity baskets that attempt to completely eliminate factors other than the theme itself.
I use this strategy in my own portfolio, and I never write about something I myself am not also actively allocating to. This is risk I’m wearing, and - so far at least - I’ve had success in utilizing these baskets to isolate the impact of these trends. The average factor-based returns on our thematic baskets are comprised of greater than 80% selection effect.
These thematic equity primers are not trades - they’re trends that I believe will affect asset prices for years - if not decades. And they provide an excellent return profile that is largely uncorrelated to asset markets as a whole (themes are either happening or not, and by utilizing these trade constructions that isolate only their impact we position based only on that).
While some articles are focused on being timely, with implied expiration dates to the insights therein, most of the thematic ones are designed to be referred back to over the course of months, if not years, as the trends play out.
I highly recommend that new subscribers go and read these four articles encompassing three unique themes and megatrends as well as one macroeconomic overview focused on China.
Feel free to reach out with any questions or comments, especially if something is outdated!
Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning, Part One
Artificial Intelligence & Machine Learning: Part Two
US Fiscal Primacy:
Quarterly, I write up a cross-asset memo focusing on the most interesting opportunities in various markets along with an overview of the current macroeconomic environment and market regime. An example of something like this would be the macro overview published August 5th 2023 on China:
Finally, I keep a journal of tactical positioning in my global macro book and my read on the market prior to significant economic data or earnings releases in the Substack Chat feature, which are mostly reserved for paid subscribers.
If you’ve followed me on twitter, you have an idea of what that looks like. You can access that here. This is also where I’ll update you on news and insights
